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Estimating the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory and hospital capability necessities in South West England: a mathematical modelling framework.
BMJ Open. 2021 Jan 07;11(1):e041536
Authors: Booton RD, MacGregor L, Vass L, Looker KJ, Hyams C, Vibrant PD, Harding I, Lazarus R, Hamilton F, Lawson D, Danon L, Pratt A, Wooden R, Brooks-Pollock E, Turner KME
OBJECTIVES: To develop a regional mannequin of COVID-19 dynamics to be used in estimating the variety of infections, deaths and required acute and intensive care (IC) beds utilizing the South West England (SW) for instance case.
DESIGN: Open-source age-structured variant of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental mathematical mannequin. Latin hypercube sampling and most probability estimation had been used to calibrate to cumulative circumstances and cumulative deaths.
SETTING: SW at a time thought of early within the pandemic, the place Nationwide Well being Service authorities required proof to information localised planning and help decision-making.
PARTICIPANTS: Publicly obtainable knowledge on sufferers with COVID-19.
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The anticipated numbers of contaminated circumstances, deaths attributable to COVID-19 an infection, affected person occupancy of acute and IC beds and the copy (‘R’) quantity over time.
RESULTS: SW mannequin projections point out that, as of 11 Could 2020 (when ‘lockdown’ measures had been eased), 5793 (95% credible interval (CrI) 2003 to 12 051) people had been nonetheless infectious (0.10% of the whole SW inhabitants, 95% CrI 0.04% to 0.22%), and a complete of 189 048 (95% CrI 141 580 to 277 955) had been contaminated with the virus (both asymptomatically or symptomatically), however recovered, which is 3.4% (95% CrI 2.5% to five.0%) of the SW inhabitants. The full variety of sufferers in acute and IC beds within the SW on 11 Could 2020 was predicted to be 701 (95% CrI 169 to 1543) and 110 (95% CrI 8 to 464), respectively. The R worth in SW was predicted to be 2.6 (95% CrI 2.0 to three.2) previous to any interventions, with social distancing lowering this to 2.3 (95% CrI 1.8 to 2.9) and lockdown/faculty closures additional lowering the R worth to 0.6 (95% CrI 0.5 to 0.7).
CONCLUSIONS: The developed mannequin has proved a precious asset for regional healthcare companies. The mannequin will likely be used additional within the SW because the pandemic evolves, and-as open-source software-is moveable to healthcare techniques in different geographies.
PMID: 33414147 [PubMed – in process]